Abstract

Agricultural commodity price volatility remains a critical barrier to rural livelihood resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet empirical evidence examining its determinants within specific Sierra Leonean contexts remains sparse. This study investigates the drivers of price volatility and their consequent livelihood impacts among smallholder farming households in Yoni Chiefdom, Tonkolili District, Sierra Leone. Drawing on primary cross-sectional survey data collected from 202 respondents in June 2025, the study employs descriptive statistics and chi-square tests of independence to analyze the relationships between socio-demographic characteristics, price volatility determinants, and livelihood outcomes. The findings reveal that seasonal variations, transportation costs, middlemen influence, limited storage capacity, and climate change constitute the principal drivers of price instability in the study area. A substantial majority of respondents (83.2%) reported that seasonal variations exerted at least a moderate influence on agricultural prices, whilst (71.8%) characterized middlemen as highly or extremely influential in price determination. The livelihood consequences were pronounced: (72.8%) of households reported negative or very negative income impacts, and (78.7%) experienced adverse effects on their ability to meet basic needs. Chi-square analysis established statistically significant associations between occupation and the adoption of adaptive farming practices (χ² = 13.438, df = 4, p = 0.009), as well as between occupation and exposure to market access challenges (χ² = 13.990, df = 4, p = 0.007). Notably, (73.3%) of respondents had altered their farming practices in response to price fluctuations, with reductions in cultivated area (58.1%) and changes in crop selection (48.6%) representing the dominant adaptive strategies. These findings underscore the urgency of targeted policy interventions encompassing rural infrastructure development, storage facility provision, market information system strengthening, and institutional support for farmer collective action.

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